Sunday, February 17, 2013

Prediction Review

How did the PM do this Saturday?
#1 Indiana by 19 over Purdue
Indiana actually won by 28.
#2 Duke by 5 over Maryland
  • Gary Williams is gone, so don't expect one of his patented Maryland surprises.
Fear the Turtle!  Gary Williams' ghost (what, he isn't dead?) must have inspired the Terps, because they handed Duke a patented unpleasant surprise at what might be the last Duke-Maryland matchup at Comcast Center.
#5 Gonzaga by 12.5 over San Francisco
  • Gonzaga on cruise control.
Gonzaga by 10
#6 Syracuse by 8 over Seton Hall
Syracuse by 11
#7 Florida by 16 over Auburn
  • Florida remains amazingly under-ranked and Auburn is turrible.
The actual margin was 31.  Hopefully the AP voters will take notice.
#8 MSU by 9 over Nebraska
  • Nebraska also turrible.
MSU by 9.
#10 KSU by 4 over Baylor
  • A good chance for an upset in this game -- KSU is very over-ranked in the polls.
KSU by 20.  KSU controlled the second half and throttled Baylor in what is a very nice result for them.

So not a terrible day for the PM.  It missed one upset and got several games within one basket.


  1. AP voters are ranking teams with different criteria. Poll voting, like bracket selection, is based on achievement. Only wins and losses should matter against the strength of the schedule you've compiled them against. Your rankings, like KenPom and other predictive rankings, are simply trying to predict who would win if two teams played tomorrow.

    There's a big difference and it's at the heart of most of these debates. I, too, have Florida near the top of my predictive rankings, but just 8th on my "Achievement Rankings". Fact is they have 3 losses against the 72nd-toughest schedule and that's just not as good as Miami (3 losses, 31st-toughest SOS), Duke (3 losses, 13th SOS), Indiana (3, 20th), or even New Mexico (4, 22nd...but 33rd in my predictive rankings).

    So I agree Florida is better, but disagree they should be ranked higher.

  2. Worthy of a post, I think, when I get to it...

  3. I've taken a few cracks at it. Here's a couple of them: