Monday, February 25, 2013

Comparative Tournament Odds

A reader ("CS", who is apparently a cat) was curious how the PM's ratings compared to the Vegas odds for winning the tournament. I put together a very quick, very hacky comparison, and here are the top 25:

TeamOddsPM OddsRatio
Indiana400383104%
Florida600328183%
Duke700431416%
Michigan700182838%
Gonzaga800197640%
Miami FL800190184%
Kansas1000197651%
Louisville1000249840%
Michigan St1000678515%
Georgetown15001010415%
Syracuse1500369041%
St Louis25001172021%
Ohio St2500341373%
Arizona25001181221%
New Mexico4000838405%
Missouri50002538820%
Kansas St50001058947%
Oklahoma St5000705571%
Wisconsin60002920205%
North Carolina60002024430%
North Carolina St60002024430%
UCLA60003664516%
Pittsburgh6000727982%
Butler75004419717%

Likely the whole comparison doesn't mean anything, but the ratio might say something about which teams the PM thinks are undervalued or overvalued.  This assumes that Indiana is more-or-less correctly valued.  Not unsurprisingly, the PM thinks Florida is undervalued, Wisconsin even more so, and teams like tOSU, Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh as well.  Very overvalued are Miami and New Mexico, and significantly over-valued includes Duke, MSU, Georgetown, UCLA and Butler.  In the latter you can see a common thread of teams where bettors might be over-enthusiastic because of the popularity of the program, recent performance, etc.

No comments:

Post a Comment