Monday, December 30, 2013

Top Twenty, Predictions (12/30)

Prediction Machine's Top Twenty

1 Oklahoma St. 35.8
2 Louisville 34.0
3 Arizona 33.1
4 Arkansas 32.7
5 Ohio St. 32.7
6 Iowa St. 32.6
7 Iowa 32.4
8 Kentucky 32.2
9 Villanova 31.9
10 Arizona St. 31.9
11 Duke 31.7
12 Creighton 31.6
13 Michigan 31.4
14 Syracuse 31.1
15 Kansas 31.0
16 Pittsburgh 30.8
17 Colorado 30.8
18 Oregon 30.8
19 Cincinnati 30.7
20 Wisconsin 30.6

The big mover this week was Syracuse jumping up 6 spots to #14 based on the solid win against Villanova -- who dropped 5 spots.  Arkansas and tOSU both moved up 3 spots.  I'm not sure why in either case, although tOSU did have a win over ND last week.  Oregon dropped 3 spots after squeaking out an OT win over BYU at home.


Not a lot of interesting games this week, although there are 3 Top 25 vs. Top 25 matchups next Sunday for some reason.

#3 tOSU vs. Purdue:  tOSU by 12

HCA won't be enough for the Boilermakers

Indiana vs. Illinois:  Indiana by 1

In the running for squeaker of the week.  If Indiana wins at Illinois and then upsets MSU later in the week, they'll probably be ranked next week.

St. Mary's vs. #24 Gonzaga: Gonzaga by 4
Good chance for an upset here -- Gonzaga is probably over-ranked.  A win by 4 at home is basically saying you're even with the visiting team.

#9 Duke vs. Notre Dame: Duke by 3
Duke outperformed last week, but this might be a trap game for them.

#5 MSU vs. Indiana: MSU by 2
Indiana's chance to get ranked...

#22 Iowa vs. #4 Wisconsin:  Toss-up
Coin Toss of the Week.  The PM favors the Badgers by a tenth of a point, but that's down in the noise.

UNI vs. #10 Wichita State:  Wichita State by 5
UNI's probably not good enough to win this on the road.

#12 Oregon vs. #21 Colorado:  Colorado by 3
The PM has these teams as nearly identical strength, so this goes to Colorado playing at home.

#20 SDSU vs. #16 Kansas:  Kansas by 4.5
The PM's not nearly as fond of SDSU as the AP -- it has them down around #60 in the country -- so this should be a pedestrian win for Kansas.


Robert Morris vs. #7 Oklahoma State:  OkSt by 30
The PM effectively caps predictions around 30 points MOV, but this might stray into the 40 point range.

Monday, December 23, 2013

Top Twenty (12/23)

Now that the Redskins are dead and buried, I'm turning my attention more to college basketball.  Here's the season's first Top Twenty from the Prediction Machine.

Top Twenty

1 Oklahoma St. 35.8
2 Louisville 34.6
3 Arizona 32.8
4 Villanova 32.6
5 Iowa St. 32.6
6 Iowa 32.4
7 Arkansas 32.3
8 Ohio St. 32.1
9 Arizona St. 32.0
10 Kentucky 31.7
11 Creighton 31.3
12 Duke 31.3
13 Michigan 31.1
14 Kansas 31.0
15 Oregon 30.9
16 Pittsburgh 30.8
17 Colorado 30.6
18 Florida St. 30.4
19 Wisconsin 30.3
20 Syracuse 30.3

Some early-season shakeout still going on in the Top Twenty.  Oklahoma State and Louisville are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the nation.  Oklahoma State lost some ground this week to Louisville despite a solid win over Colorado.


There's a dearth of interesting games until next Saturday.

#8 Villanova at #2 Syracuse:  Nova by 4
The PM has Nova at #4 and Syracuse at #20, so don't expect Syracuse to have an easy time of it.  Home court advantage is worth a lot, though, so it won't be a big surprise if Syracuse wins this game.

#6 Louisville at #18 Kentucky: Louisville by 8.5
The PM thinks better of both teams than the AP, but Louisville (and OKSt) is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the Top Twenty, so the PM thinks they'll win comfortably at Lexington.

Providence @ #23 UMASS!!!:  UMass by 1
Good chance for an "upset" in this game.

#25 Missouri @ N.C. State:  Mizzou by 1
Another good upset possibility.


Blowout of the Week


Wisconsin over Prairie View A&M by 29


Coin Toss of the Week

Boston U @ St. Joseph's