Monday, March 24, 2014

A Look Back At Some Predictions

Previously on Net Prophet:

Courtesy of the Prediction Machine, here are the five most unpredictable teams in the Tournament:
  1. Oklahoma State
  2. North Dakota State
  3. Harvard
ND State and Harvard certainly did unpredictably well.  OK State may have been unpredictably bad at the wrong time.

Over-seeded teams:
UMass!!  should be a 15, was a 6 (-9)
St. Louis should be a 10, was a 5 (-5)
Colorado should be a 13, was an 8 (-5)
St. Joseph's should be a 15, was a 10 (-5)
New Mexico State should be an "18", was a 13 (-5)
Syracuse should be a 7, was a 3 (-4)
 All of these teams are out.   Only Syracuse and St. Louis even made it to a second game.

Under-seeded teams:
Iowa should be a 4, was an 11 (+7)
Oklahoma St. should be a 2, was a 9 (+7)
Tennessee should be a 5, was an 11 (+6)
Ohio State should be a 2, was a 6 (+4)
Harvard should be a 9, was an 11 (+2) 
Tennessee and Harvard both out-performed their seeds.  Iowa had the misfortune to face Tennessee.  Oklahoma State and Ohio State both lost games they should have won, so the committee might have been right about them.
Three possibly first-round upsets:  Stanford over New Mexico, Providence over UNC, and Xavier over St. Louis. 
Stanford beat New Mexico, and UNC and St. Louis won by a total of 5 points.

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