Final Four Predictions

I've been busy enjoying the Tournament and the discussions over at Kaggle, but I thought I'd take some time to run predictions for the Final Four.

#7 MSU vs. #1 Duke:  Duke by 3.5 points

MSU has had (another) amazing Tournament run, but my predictor still considers them the weakest team in the field by a substantial margin.

#1 Wisconsin vs. #1 Kentucky:  UK by 1.5 points

The predictor agrees with most pundits that Wisconsin is the second best team, and the most likely to knock off UK.  1.5 points is basically a toss-up.  Wisconsin's ratings rose slightly following a good win over Arizona, and UK's dropped after a relatively poor performance against Notre Dame.

#1 Duke vs. #1 Kentucky: UK by 4.0 points

 This is not a toss-up -- UK has a solid edge in this game.

The other possible final game matchups:

#7 MSU vs. #1 Kentucky:  UK by 8 points
#1 Duke vs. #1 Wisconsin: Wisconsin by 1 point
#7 MSU vs. #1 Wisconsin: Wisconsin by 5 points

I don't think MSU has much of a chance against Kentucky, but all the other matchups should be pretty even.