Monday, April 7, 2014

Championship Game Prediction

The Prediction Machine hasn't fared very well this Tournament (languishing in the middle of both the Kaggle and March Machine Madness contests) but for what it's worth here is the prediction for the Championship Game:
Connecticut vs. Kentucky:  Kentucky by 2
I'd like to see Connecticut win myself, but I think they have a hard row to hoe.  Napier & Boatright have been destroying opposing guards with their pressure defense.  If they can do that to the Harrison twins and keep them from repeatedly driving the lane, that will certainly help Connecticut's chances.  But so far the referees have been very stingy with charge calls, which is going to be make it very difficult for Connecticut's undersized defense to deal with Kentucky's dribble-drive offense.  Wisconsin figured out in the second half that they could mug the Harrisons once they were in the lane with little repercussion, but who knows if the reffing crew tonight will allow that.  And you have to figure that Kentucky is going to continue to enjoy an enormous advantage in rebounding.  Still, anything can happen, and it will hopefully be a tight and entertaining game.

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