Sunday, January 20, 2013

Here are some results from Saturday's predictions:

Away Home Pred Line Actual Pred vs. Line
#6 Syracuse #1 Louisville 6.8 6.5 -2Lose
#4 Kansas Texas -10 -10 5Push
#7 Arizona ASU -6 -7 17Win
#8 Gonzaga #13 Butler -4 -3 2Lose
#17 Missouri #10 Florida 9 13 31Lose

#11 OSU
#18 MSU -1 2.5 3Lose
#12 Creighton WSU 1 2.5 3Lose
#15 SDSU Wyoming 5.5 -1.5 13Win
Oklahoma #16 KSU 6 6 9Push
#21 Oregon #24 UCLA 2
#22 VCU Duquesne -13 -14.5 -27Lose
#25 Marquette Cincy 4
3 (OT)
E Illinois Austin Peay 0 5 -10Win
E Kentucky Jacksonville St 0
Miami (OH) E Michigan 0 1.5 7Lose

A couple of notes.

The PM's prediction is often very close to the line for the game.  There are few games where it differs by more than a few points.  In this set of games, the Florida game, the Wyoming game and the Austin Peay game stand out with more than 4 points difference with the line.  This suggests that Vegas uses very similar technology to help set the lines.

It's interesting to note that the three games the PM thought would be close weren't particularly.

The PM didn't do particularly well on this set of games, although it did win 2 out of 3 where it differed significantly from the line.  In 3 games where it differed on the winner with the line, the PM also won 2 out of 3.  Neither result is significant, but the PM does slightly outperform the line in general.  The PM "bets" on games that meet certain criteria, including a significant point difference from the line.  Of these games, two met all the criteria:  the Austin Peay game and the Wyoming game, both of which the PM won.  Eight games total met all the criteria on Saturday, and the PM "won" five of those games.  For the year, the PM is 55% against the line for games that meet all the criteria.

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